May 22, 2008

Race for Assembly seat heating up

By Bil Paul

We're in the homestretch of the race to find a successor for South San Francisco's Gene Mullin. Mullin is terming out of representing state Assembly District 19, which extends from Brisbane and Daly City down through San Mateo and the coast south of Half Moon Bay. Almost everyone has seemed pleased with Mullin's performance, so the bar has been set high for his successor.

I'm going to talk about the Democratic contenders for his job in the June 3 primary election, the winner of which should be a shoo-in in the general election for the seat in November, because registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in San Mateo County two to one.

In all the campaign mailers filling up mailboxes these days, we're seeing a lot of claims, counterclaims and endorsements. With approximately 40 percent of San Mateo County's registered voters voting by mail now, last-minute "hit" mailers are much less effective than in years past. What we often hear are generalities such as that this candidate is environmentally friendly, or that that candidate is devoted to growing business.

I decided to look specifically at the candidates in terms of (mostly) hard information.

Gina Papan's experience lies with knowledge and practice of the law (as a state deputy attorney general working in San Francisco), involvement in city government (as a member of the Millbrae City Council) and women's advocacy. What would she do in Sacramento? Her Web site suggests pushing to develop green industry in California in much the same way the Bay Area became a computer and biotech center. She would also work to raise vehicle emission standards.

Her best endorsement comes from state Sen. Leland Yee, perhaps from the friendship formed when her late father, Lou Papan, did Yee a favor by running in the race between him and Mike Nevin, helping to draw votes from Nevin.

Richard Holober comes with a broader resume, having direct involvement with education as a member of the local community college board for a decade, with consumer rights and with labor. He's seen the inside of state politics as a Sacramento lobbyist. He says he would work to reduce college tuition, expand school funding and promote educational innovation. He would also support universal health coverage and strengthen export-oriented businesses.

Holober's best endorsement comes from U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer.

Jerry Hill comes with an arm's-length-long resume, though he doesn't have as much state-level experience as Papan or Holober. He's a small business owner, has city-level experience as a former San Mateo City Council member and county experience as a member of the board of supervisors for 10 years. As a supervisor, health coverage for all was a defining issue for him, and he gained transportation experience as a member of the Caltrain board. He leapfrogged from being chair of the Bay Area Air Quality Management District to being recently appointed to the state air resources board. Hill said if elected, he wants to eliminate legislative gridlock in the area of health care reform and would also seek to be appointed to the education and environmental committees in the Assembly.

Hill has the most valuable endorsement of all: Gene Mullin's. Interestingly, former state Sen. Jackie Speier didn't endorse anyone when doing so would've been a big boost to one of the three.

Beyond endorsements for Hill, Holober and Papan, we could also look at the depth of support as indicated not so much by the amount of money raised from contributors but from the sheer number of them. In this category, Hill is far ahead with 964 listed on a state Web site, while Papan has 189 and Holober has 268. This probably results from Hill's tireless involvement in, and appearances at, countywide activities. Because of frequent media coverage, partly due to his easy accessibility to reporters, Hill has accrued a lot of name recognition.

Speaking of finances, as nearly as I could determine, Holober has jumped into the fray in an all-out effort by personally loaning his campaign $325,000 and giving it another $15,000. Gina Papan's sister Virginia has loaned Papan's campaign $100,000 and given another $5,000. The big story about Papan, though, comes from independent organizations (mostly representing the health care industry and located outside the district) that have spent an incredible $321,000 advertising her candidacy. The law says there can be no coordination or communications between them and her campaign committee, although the Hill campaign has expressed doubts. Personally, I feel that that kind of money isn't spent without the expectation of something more than a smile and handshake in return, should she be elected.

The big winners of this largesse are printers and the Postal Service, because mailed campaign literature has been so profuse, and it can be targeted precisely to registered Democratic voters. Of course, the Postal Service also wins with the postage required on mail-in ballots.

I agree with the refrain I've heard from so many people: All three candidates have enough experience to be in the state Assembly. As for prognostication, I've been wrong before (especially in the Nevin and Yee race) but I predict that Hill will win approximately 45 percent of the vote - because there don't seem to be strong differences on the issues between the candidates, and Hill's stronger name recognition and governing experience will win out.

They've put their reputations, egos and futures on the line. Now, it's up to you to decide which one to send upriver to the Big House. Maybe, just maybe, the winner will have the courage to help make some basic changes there. A good start would be doing something about the inequalities of property taxation under Proposition 13. And please, no more contests to see who can dream up the most laws.



Bil Paul's column appears Thursdays in the Daily News. Reach him at natural_born_writer@yahoo.com.